Some approaches (e.g., this) suggest using the training distribution median while others (including SHAP package) suggest randomly drawing samples from a distribution (more on this below). Counterfactual vs Contrastive Explanations in Artificial Intelligence. Algorithm 1 Find P, Q & Shapley Values. Counterfactuals based, explanations provided through counterfactual examples. A methodological challenge was how best to prime the "counterfactualness" of information while leaving constant its informational content. Experiment 3: counterfactual Setup: same as interventional setting, but tasked with answering a counterfactual question at quiz time Implementation: Assume: Store some additional latent randomness in the last information phase step to use during the quiz phase "Which of the nodes would have had the highest value in the last step of the Most Diode Array UV detectors have a 'slit width' setting which describes the width of the slit used to focuss light onto the photodiode after passing through the flow cell. Counterfactual analysis enables evaluators to attribute cause and effect between interventions and outcomes. Baseline: A baseline is a benchmark that is used as a foundation for measuring or comparing current and past values. Counterfactual judgments remain hypothetical, subjective, untestable, unfalsifiable. ( en noun ) A claim, hypothesis, or other belief that is contrary to the facts. JL & Tech., 31:841. In my writings, I have previously argued that the term "counterfactual" has been misconstrued when discussing baselines or additionality. Cost Baseline = Project Cost Estimates + Contingency Reserves. The fan curve used for the proposed model is Variable Speed Drive FPLR. This entry will follow this widely used terminology to avoid confusion. COMA also uses a critic representation that allows the counterfactual baseline to be computed efficiently in a single forward pass. We show that latent space counterfactual generation strikes a balance between the speed of basic feature gradient descent methods and the sparseness and authenticity of counterfactuals generated by more complex feature space oriented techniques. Download scientific diagram | Financial channel variance decomposition: Baseline vs. counterfactual from publication: Mortgage Spreads, House Prices, and Business Cycles in Emerging Countries . Expenditures on New Motor Vehicles: Actual vs. Counterfactual 0 5 10 15 billions of $, monthly rate 20 2007m7 2008m1 2008m7 2009m1 2009m7 month actual counterfactual Note. The dominant theory of harm is the counterfactual account, most famously proposed by Joel Feinberg. comprehension questions in two repeated measures analysis of variance (ANOVA) of a 2 (conditional type: indicative vs counterfactual) 2 (conjunction type: negative vs affirmative . This does not include other . It helps to maintain a baseline for the performance of the products. First, the user of a counterfactual explanation defines a relevant change in the prediction of an instance (= the alternative reality). Using targets for performance management in a learning organization is detailed before differentiating the types of targets and how to express targets. NNL = no net loss biodiversity. This allows us to write: P (Yx = y|Z = z,X = x) = P (Y = y|Z = z,X = x), and identify our average causal effect This same analysis applies to our choices of career: if you don't choose to study medicine, the counterfactual is that someone nearly as good as you will; if you don't start that successful company, someone likely will in the next few years anyway (so your impact is the difference in time). Downward Counterfactual Thinking. Subjects: Machine Learning Counterfactual scenario:the scenario expected to occur in the absence of some defined action or set of actions. Synonyms for COUNTERFACTUAL: erroneous, false, inaccurate, incorrect, inexact, invalid, off, unsound, untrue, untruthful This is referred to as the "counterfactual ideal," because it is impossible for the same person to be both exposed and unexposed at the same time. Remember that no project ever goes exactly according to the original plan. the counterfactual condition if P then Q is true iff either: 1. Counterfactual conditionals (also subjunctive or X-marked) are conditional sentences which discuss what would have been true under different circumstances, e.g. 3,4,5 The simulation heuristic explains how our brains are likely to believe things that are easy to picture mentally. This paper provides an overview on the counterfactual and related approaches. C.3 Baseline and Counterfactual assumptions. To calculate this counterfactual baseline for each agent, we calculate an expected value over all actions that agent can take while keeping the actions of all other agents fixed. When we observe the treated and control units only once before treatment \((t=1)\) and once after treatment \((t=2)\), we write this as: T. Miller, Contrastive explanation: A structural-model approach (2018) S. Wachter, B. Mittelstadt, and C. Russell, Counterfactual explanations without opening the black box: Automated decisions and the GDPR (2017), Harv. Attribution methods have been shown as promising approaches for identifying key features that led to learned model predictions. A baseline period is the period relative to which anomalies are computed. The pipeline begins by identifying the desired class (Q), the predicted class (P) and the data point. For example, a company wanting to measure the success of one of its product . A Baseline Configuration, or Gold Build, in terms of security controls covers connectivity, operational, and communications aspects of any system. These include causal interactions, imperfect experiments, adjustment for . The baseline is a concept frequently used in project management. The counterfactual scenario cannot be directly observed and must be inferred by reference to control locations. Upward Counterfactual Thinking Clip: Modern Family "Airport 2010". 2021 . By exploring how historical events may have unfolded under small changes in circumstances, historians can assess the importance of factors that may have caused the event. This is a mischaracterization of the actual issue. Experiment 1 investigated the effects of retrieving a memory in the context of either an upward or a downward counterfactual simulation versus attentive reactivation in the absence of imaginative modification (i.e., remember), or no reactivation (i.e., baseline). This process consists of three steps: (1) a problem activates counterfactual thinking, (2) counterfactual thinking activates a behavioral intention, and (3) the behavioral intention evokes the corresponding behavior. General security guidelines are to first minimize a function of any system then apply a configuration to minimize vulnerabilities. In this context the "base-line indicators", established by the SWOT analysis and ex-ante evaluation at the time of programming, need to be mentioned. Figure 5: Baseline noise using a methanol / water eluent at 278nm and 210nm [1]. example, there might be more interest in a comparison against a baseline other than the counterfactual, say, in the difference between two 'do something' options, one of which might be a 'do minimum'. Further, the counterfactual mediation approach allows for valid inferences of longitudinal data under the assumptions that there are measured covariates controlling for confounding of the relationships between the 1) exposure and outcome, 2) mediator and outcome, 3) exposure and mediator, and 4) that none of the mediator-outcome confounders are . . This determines whether harm is caused by comparing what actually happened in a given situation with the 'counterfacts' i.e. Cost and schedule variance of activities are calculated with the help of a schedule baseline. Consequently, the best one can . Difference-in-Difference (or Double Difference) : comparing the before-and-after difference for the group receiving the intervention (where they have not been randomly assigned) to the before-after difference for those who did not. The counterfactual or potential outcome model has become increasingly standard for causal inference in epidemiological and medical studies. Our approach effectively selects the counterfactual baseline as the closest realistic sample belong to the target class, which allows attribution methods to provide true 1-vs-1 explanations. We showed that GANMEX baselines improved the saliency maps and led to stronger performance on perturbation-based evaluation metrics over the existing . Request an accessible format. Using a counterfactual is the most rigorous approach in the right circumstances and can provide strong evidence for program outcomes. The meaning of COUNTERFACTUAL is contrary to fact. Uninstall any software not required, remove all unused roles and . Second, attributions are highly sensitive to the choice of counterfactuals. A variety of conceptual as well as practical issues when estimating causal effects are reviewed. 10.3389/fenvs.2021.724095 . Author(s): Jing Victor Li . Counterfactual assumption (Parallel Trends) A second key assumption we make is that the change in outcomes from pre- to post-intervention in the control group is a good proxy for the counterfactual change in untreated potential outcomes in the treated group. Difference-in-Difference estimation, graphical explanation. A false discovery rate (FDR) . Differences between a baseline vs counterfactual frame of reference. A Counterfactual Baseline for Assessing Future Environmental Impact: A Case Study of the Belt and Road Initiative Frontiers in Environmental Science . counterfactual is a central issue for all evaluations. Figure 1. There are no possible worlds that P is true; 2. The base-line indicators are an important reference point for the evaluation of impacts of single It is kind of a framework within which can be referred at any time during the implementation of the project. Below are the few benefits of following the baseline testing approach: It helps to remove the requirement issues at the initial stage only. bution of the counterfactual baseline to the policy gradient is zero. Adding counterfactual baseline to advantage function estimate Let's take a step back here and dissect this equation. The proposed model fan power matches the actual units purchased, (0.001164 KW/CFM supply and 0.000435 KW/CFM return). The baseline is established before a particular project begins. The first woman has a low predicted risk of 0.06. The project baseline is an original snapshot of the project in terms of schedule, cost, work and scope. Setting it to a zero value creates a very atypical counterfactual. If you want to improve quality of life in a city, you might start by measuring quality of life today. In philosophy and related fields, counterfactuals are taken to be sentences like: (1) If colonial powers hadn't invaded, the Americas would be very different. GANMEX: One-vs-One Attributions Guided by GAN-based Counterfactual Explanation Baselines Sheng-Min Shih, Pin-Ju Tien, Zohar Karnin Submitted on 2020-11-11, updated on 2021-06-23. Baselines provide a "target" against which you can track a project's resource, cost, and schedule performance. A counterfactual is defined as something that is contrary to the facts or not reflecting or considering relevant facts. The 'counterfactual' measures what would have happened to beneficiaries in the absence of the intervention, and impact is estimated by comparing counterfactual outcomes to those observed under the intervention. 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